Documentos CEDE
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En este sitio podrá consultar todos los números de los Documentos CEDE. Publicación de la Facultad de Economía de la Universidad de los Andes y el Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo Económico
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Publicación Acceso abierto Spillover Gridlock: Revisiting Interference in Difference-in-differences(2026-05) Lasso-Jaramillo, DanielI decompose the canonical Difference-in-differences (DiD) estimator in presence of spillovers into a weighted average of 2×2 estimators that compare treated and untreated units across different levels of exposure to treatment. Identifying the ATT requires strong homogeneity conditions: that spillover magnitudes and exposure probabilities are both identical across treatment status, conditions unlikely to hold in observational studies. While a common response is to control for researcher-proposed interference structures, such estimators induce a selection bias if misspecified, a serious concern given the complex and unknown nature of interference. I propose instead spill-imputation, which identifies individual treatment and spillover effects under a unit-level parallel trends assumption —weaker than correct specification of the interference structure— and recovers spillover heterogeneity ex-post, in a data-driven way. Monte Carlo simulations show deviations of up to 31.2% for the parametric DiD against at most 0.25% for spill-imputation, with standard errors 42% smaller, reflecting greater estimation efficiency. An application to road paving in Mexico finds positive spillover effects of 19.5% on nearby unpaved plots’ property values, and no heterogeneous effects along the distance to the paved street.Publicación Acceso abierto Employment Effects of Regional Minimum Wage Unification in Colombia(2026-05) Maldonado-Robayo, LucíaBefore 1983, Colombia maintained a system of multiple minimum wages that varied by municipality. In 1984, this system was replaced by a single nationwide minimum wage of US$3.68 per day. This paper exploits the unexpected 5.71 percentage point increase in the real minimum wage for low-wage municipalities and the differential exposure of blue-collar versus white-collar workers to understand the effect of the unification on formal employment. Using repeated annual cross-sectional data from 1974 to 1991 in the manufacturing sector and a difference-in-differences approach, I find that the minimum wage unification led to a 10% decrease in the blue-collar/whitecollar employment ratio in the second year, rising to 13.8% five years after the reform. I also find that plants in low-wage municipalities, where the real wage increase was larger, suffered an 11.3% decrease in total employment. Together, these results suggest that the increase in the minimum wage caused by the unification negatively affected the level of formal employment in the manufacturing sector in Colombia, especially in municipalities where the adjustment was higher. Finally, I present an oligopolistic partial equilibrium model that supports these findings, highlighting that employment effects in the formal sector may be larger than in the overall economy due to the absorbing role of the informal sector.Publicación Acceso abierto Rentas extractivas y participación política: evidencia desde Colombia(2026-05) Ramírez-Arias, Camilo AlexanderLas rentas derivadas de la extracción de recursos naturales han desempeñado un papel determinante en la configuración de las instituciones políticas, así como en fenómenos de corrupción y clientelismo. Aunque existe una amplia literatura sobre estos temas, aún es limitada la evidencia acerca de la relación entre las rentas extractivas y la participación política. Este artículo busca contribuir a este debate analizando si un aumento de los ingresos locales, producto de las transferencias asociadas a la explotación de recursos naturales, tiene efectos sobre la participación política y la competencia electoral. Para ello, la estrategia de identificación aprovecha la discontinuidad generada por la reforma al sistema de regalías en Colombia en 2012, la cual modificó la metodología de asignación de recursos entre municipios. Los resultados evidencian que un incremento en las transferencias de regalías produce un aumento en el número de partidos y candidatos, así como reduce la participación electoral en las elecciones de autoridades locales. Estos hallazgos tienen importantes implicaciones de política pública, pues sugieren que, aunque una mayor disponibilidad de recursos fiscales puede fortalecer la competencia electoral, también genera incentivos para la captura del poder político, deteriorando la confianza ciudadana y disminuyendo la participación en las urnas.Publicación Acceso abierto Long-term Employment and Growth Under Energy Transition in Colombia(2026-04) Piñeros Ruíz, JuanaThe energy transition entails a gradual phase-out of carbon-intensive industries alongside the expansion of renewable energy production and consumption. Developing economies are central to this process: while they hold substantial renewable energy potential, they remain particularly vulnerable as they must simultaneously secure economic growth and employment while reducing reliance on fossil production. This paper adapts the International Labour Organization’s Green Jobs Assessment Model (GJAM) to assess the impacts of energy transition scenarios in Colombia, a middle-income country with strong dependence on fossils exports. Through an input–output analysis the study evaluates scenarios of substituting fossil fuels exports, shifting domestic consumption patterns towards electricity, and the expansion of sustainable energy alternatives. The results suggest that transition policies towards domestic adjustments in energy production and consumption could compensate the negative income and employment effects of a drop in fossils global demand, when done at the same time. Compared to a baseline scenario, the energy transition may have positive long-term effects on the economy on 2035, creating up to 1,218,206 jobs (4%) and increasing in 0.2% the economic growth.Publicación Acceso abierto Equilibrium in the Insurance Chain under Risk and Ambiguity Aversion(2026-04) Lima, Luis AdriánThis paper studies how ambiguity—uncertainty about the true distribution of risks—affects equilibrium outcomes along the insurance chain. I extend a Stackelberg game to analyze the interactions between a reinsurer leader, who is neutral to both risk and ambiguity, and two ambiguity-averse insurers who compete in a linear city model to offer coverage to risk- and ambiguity-averse policyholders. Unlike standard models that focus solely on risk or examine only parts of the insurance chain, this framework captures the full structure and explicitly separates ambiguity and risk preferences. I find that: (a) ambiguity aversion and imperfect competition lead to partial coverage and premiums above actuarially fair levels; (b) when insurers become more sensitive to ambiguity, coverage falls and premiums rise; and (c) when shocks affect only policyholders, insurers offer more coverage and the effect on premiums depends on the degree of their market power. These findings show that ambiguity influences insurance outcomes in ways that risk alone cannot, providing a rationale for observed patterns that standard models fail to explain.Publicación Acceso abierto Dime con quién andas...: Identificación de preferencias por estatus socioeconómico en redes - torniquetes en Universidad de los Andes(2026-04) Neira Hernández, SantiagoUtilizando datos transaccionales de torniquetes en la Universidad de los Andes durante 2016–2018, estudio cómo las preferencias socioeconómicas moldean la formación de redes sociales entre estudiantes universitarios. Mediante un modelo estructural de formación estratégica de redes, identifico patrones de homofilia por estrato y evalúo escenarios contrafactuales sobre diversidad de vínculos. Los estudiantes de altos ingresos exhiben fuerte homofilia, mientras que los de bajos ingresos muestran mayor apertura heterofílica. Aumentar la proporción de estudiantes de bajos ingresos mejora sistemáticamente la diversidad de redes: en semestres con alta presencia de estudiantes de estrato bajo, los incrementos en la medida de cross-enlaces a nivel institucional alcanzan 0.128 puntos (contrafactual +150%, significativo al 1%), con efectos de hasta 16.7 puntos porcentuales en programas como Biología. Al incorporar la exposición en aulas mediante un modelo estocástico en bloques, encuentro que el simple balanceo de estudiantes entre secciones—sin alterar la composición total—incrementa la integración en hasta un 26.3% (Medicina), mientras que aumentar la proporción sin redistribuir puede reducir la integración hasta en un 37% (Economía). Estos resultados evidencian que el dise˜ño institucional de la exposición académica es tan determinante como la composición socioeconómica para promover entornos universitarios inclusivos.Publicación Acceso abierto Latin America’s Persistent Disorder: Meritocracy Without Mobility(2026-04) Cárdenas, Juan Camilo; Fergusson, LeopoldoLatin America combines strong beliefs in meritocracy with high levels of inequality, crime, and informality. We argue that these problems mutually reinforce an unfair and inefficient social equilibrium, sustained by deep mistrust in public institutions, low interpersonal trust, and an untamed individualism that privileges private over collective solutions. These cultural and normative foundations weaken public good provision, normalize rule-breaking, and sustain widespread acceptance of meritocracy despite low social mobility. Meritocracy, largely imagined under such conditions, nonetheless fits this individualistic culture, legitimizes the status quo, and is perversely validated by limited mobility in the widely accepted informal, and at times illegal, economy. These dynamics help explain why reforms often fail to transform outcomes: they confront not only weak institutions, but also entrenched beliefs and practices. Understanding Latin America’s “meritocracy without mobility” therefore requires analyzing how institutions, culture, and social norms sustain inequality as a stable equilibrium.Publicación Acceso abierto A Two-Sided Model of Television Competition with Advertising Pricing and Endogenous Reinvestment(2026-04) Bardey, DavidThis paper studies competition between television channels in a two-sided market with asymmetric firms. Motivated by a competition case in Colombia, we consider an oligopoly with three channels—two large and one small—that compete for viewers and advertisers. Advertising affects viewers both directly and indirectly through content quality, which is endogenously determined by the share of revenues that channels reinvest rather than distribute to shareholders. We first characterise the equilibrium of the subgame between viewers and advertisers and derive comparative statics linking audience levels to prices and payout policies. We then analyse the equilibrium of the game between channels, which jointly choose advertising prices and payout rates. While equilibrium prices are characterised implicitly, the model delivers closed-form solutions for payout decisions. Our main result is that asymmetries in audience size translate into asymmetric competitive pressure on the advertising side, which weakens the smaller channel. This effect is amplified when advertisers are restricted to single-homing, as in the presence of exclusivity clauses. By concentrating advertising demand on dominant channels, exclusivity reduces the smaller channel’s revenues and its incentives to invest in content quality, thereby limiting its ability to compete. These findings provide a novel mechanism through which exclusivity can generate exclusionary effects in two-sided media markets by affecting both demand allocation and endogenous investment decisions. We find that exclusivity reduces social welfare, mainly due to a decline in advertisers’ surplus that is not offset by improvements on the viewers’ side.Publicación Acceso abierto Impuestos al cigarrillo, contrabando, recaudo fiscal e ingresos del crimen organizado(2026-04) Mejía, Daniel; Lozano, Juan ManuelEste trabajo analiza la interacción entre impuestos al cigarrillo, contrabando e ingresos del crimen organizado en Colombia. El trabajo desarrolla un modelo microeconómico en el que un consumidor representativo decide cuántos cigarrillos consumir y cómo repartir su consumo entre cigarrillos legales e ilegales, enfrentando precios distintos por la presencia de un impuesto específico por cajetilla y un impuesto ad-valorem sobre los cigarrillos de origen legal. El modelo incorpora explícitamente un sector de contrabando, que ofrece cigarrillos ilegales a un menor precio, y obtiene rentas a partir del margen entre el precio de venta y el costo del contrabando, que recoge riesgos, costos logísticos y sobornos. A partir de esta estructura se derivan las condiciones de equilibrio para el consumo legal e ilegal, el recaudo fiscal y las rentas del contrabandista. El modelo se calibra con evidencia empírica reciente para Colombia sobre elasticidades de demanda, participaciones del mercado legal e ilegal y la magnitud de las rentas criminales asociadas al contrabando de cigarrillos. Usando los resultados de la calibración del modelo, el trabajo hace simulaciones de aumentos en el impuesto específico a los cigarrillos de origen legal, manteniendo constantes los demás parámetros. Los resultados muestran que, para niveles bajos e intermedios del impuesto a los cigarrillos, un mayor impuesto reduce el consumo total y eleva el recaudo, con aumentos moderados del contrabando. Sin embargo, más allá de cierto umbral del impuesto específico, el recaudo entra en la parte decreciente de una curva de Laffer: las ventas legales se desploman, el contrabando y la participación de los cigarrillos ilegales en el mercado total aumentan y las rentas de las organizaciones criminales vinculadas al contrabando crecen sustancialmente. El trabajo discute las implicaciones de estos resultados para el diseño conjunto de políticas tributarias frente al consumo de tabaco, el recaudo fiscal y el control al contrabando.Publicación Acceso abierto Teaming Up Hinders Moving Up: Team Interactions and Social Mobility(2026-03) Caicedo, Santiago; Corrales, Alejandro; Guerra, José Alberto; Rodríguez, Jorge; Zárate, Román AndrésThis document examines how social skills and team interactions shape intergenerational mobility. Using Colombian administrative data linked to occupational skill requirements, we document that academic majors associated with higher social-skill demands exhibit systematically lower social mobility. A one standard deviation increase in social-skill requirements corresponds to a 0.046-point increase in the intergenerational income persistence coefficient. We implement lab-in-the-field experiments with 604 undergraduate students, randomly varying team socioeconomic composition and the information participants observe about teammates’ backgrounds. Low-income participants receive significantly lower leadership recognition in mixed-income teams when signals of socioeconomic status (such as high school affiliation or names) are revealed, despite comparable task performance. These gaps emerge in both peer nominations and self-assessments and are accompanied by reduced perceptions of teamwork quality and individual contributions. Our findings suggest that team-based environments may amplify inequality through social evaluation mechanisms rather than productive complementarities, providing a micro-level explanation for the lower mobility observed in socially intensive occupations and highlighting the importance of early social integration policies.Publicación Acceso abierto Resultados electorales de Colombia(Universidad de los Andes, 2026-03) Torres Paz, Santiago; Barinas-Forero, Andrés; Forero-Mesa, Wilson; Sánchez, Juan Ernesto; Tibavisco, MercedesEste documento presenta la estructura, el contenido, y el proceso de construcción de las bases de datos que conforman el repositorio “Resultados electorales de Colombia” a fecha de 18 de febrero de 2026 (Versión 1.1.1). El repositorio alberga un total de 128 bases de datos que contienen los resultados de la gran mayoría de elecciones de alcaldes, concejales municipales, diputados, gobernadores, representantes, senadores y presidentes que tuvieron lugar entre 1958 y 2023. Adicionalmente, presentamos una nueva base de datos con todos los partidos políticos, movimientos, coaliciones y grupos significativos de ciudadanos que participaron en estos comicios. Finalmente, se provee una breve guía de cómo utilizar las bases de datos y un resumen de los principales cambios al sistema electoral que ocurrieron en este periodo.Publicación Acceso abierto Monetary Policy and the Current Account in Latin America: Revisiting the Mundellian Paradigm(2026-03) Laborde Vera, Juan CamiloHow does the current account respond to a monetary policy shock? The answer to this perennial question is theoretically ambiguous and empirical evidence is particularly scarce in emerging markets due to challenges in identifying exogenous policy variation. I construct a novel dataset of monetary policy shocks using analysts’ forecasts of policy rate decisions for an unbalanced panel of five emerging market economies in Latin America during 1999-2024. I estimate impulse response functions using local projections and find that a monetary tightening shock leads to a “J curve” pattern in the current account: a short-run contraction followed by a medium-run expansion. The response is heterogeneous in the cross-section and depends on the strength of the exchange rate appreciation resulting from the monetary contraction and the country’s export-import structure. The panel estimation results show that exports and imports exhibit a hump-shaped pattern and decline by 4.5 and 5.9 per cent, respectively, as a result of a one-percentage-point policy tightening shock. The results are robust to using alternative measures of high-frequency monetary shocks.Publicación Acceso abierto Entre Urnas y Tormentas: Participación Política de las Mujeres Tras los Desastres Naturales(2026-02) Cucás Gonzáles, Daniela¿Cómo afectan los desastres naturales la participación política de las mujeres? La literatura sugiere hipótesis contrapuestas: los desastres pueden profundizar vulnerabilidades pre-existentes (feminización de la pobreza, sobrecarga de cuidados, menor acceso a recursos) y reducir la participación; pero también pueden activar liderazgos comunitarios derivados de la necesidad de organización comunitaria. En este artículo se aprovecha la variación temporal exógena en la ocurrencia de desastres, combinando registros administrativos de desastres con datos electorales municipales de Colombia. Se encuentra evidencia causal que muestra que, cuando un desastre ocurre antes del cierre de inscripciones de las elecciones locales, la proporción de mujeres candidatas disminuye entre 2.0 y 2.4 pp, mientras que la proporción de ganadoras tiene el efecto contrario: observamos aumentos de +0.4 a +0.8 pp en la probabilidad de tener éxito electoral (cercanos a +1.0 pp cuando el evento es severo). Los resultados son robustos a interacciones de severidad (muertes/heridos y daños) y a la inclusión de variables de control municipales. Los resultados muestran que la ocurrencia de desastres naturales disminuye la postulación de mujeres a cargos de elección local, pero, entre las mujeres que deciden lanzarse, la probabilidad de victoria aumenta levemente.Publicación Acceso abierto Free To Choose: A Text Analysis on the Diffusion of Economic Ideas on Politicians(2026-02) Caicedo-Silva, SaraThis paper examines if and how economic ideas spread across political language. The publication of the TV Series and the book Free to Choose (FC) by Milton and Rosa Friedman in 1980 serves as a tool to understand how economic ideas are popularized and adopted by politicians. Using natural language models, I compute the semantic similarity between FC and the interventions in congressional records from 1975 to 1985 to assess the change in political debate speeches in the US. I find that Democratic legislators increasingly adopted the rhetorical framing of FC, reaching or even surpassing Republicans in the similarity of their speeches relative to FC. This convergence was especially strong in debates on macroeconomic policy and foreign trade. These results suggest that FC amplified existing liberal ideas and transformed them into a shared language of both advocacy and critique within Congress.Publicación Acceso abierto Representación Femenina y Justicia: ¿Reducen las Mujeres Alcaldesas la Impunidad en la Violencia Basada en Género?(2026-02) Rincón-Amaya, Jennifer KatherineEste artículo estudia el efecto causal de elegir a una alcaldesa sobre el procesamiento de los casos de violencia basada en género en Colombia. Utilizando un diseño de regresión discontinua en elecciones municipales cerradas con competencia entre candidatos de distinto género, muestro que los municipios que eligen por un margen estrecho a una mujer presentan mayores niveles de impunidad medida en los casos de violencia sexual y violencia intrafamiliar durante el período de gobierno posterior a la elección. Este aumento se concentra en las etapas intermedias del proceso penal y refleja un incremento en las denuncias que supera la capacidad del aparato acusatorio, más que un deterioro en el desempeño institucional. De manera consistente con esta interpretación, las alcaldesas se asocian con mayores tasas de denuncia y con incrementos modestos en la inversión local en justicia y seguridad.Publicación Acceso abierto Autopercepción Docente y Aprendizaje Estudiantil: un Análisis sobre su Relación mediante Experimentos de Lista(2026-02) Charry Tobar, Sofia; González Ramírez, José DavidEl docente es el principal determinante de la calidad educativa, aunque no existe consenso sobre qué define a un maestro efectivo. Este estudio analiza características del docente usualmente omitidas, como su autoeficacia, motivación o resistencia al cambio, usando experimentos de lista para reducir el sesgo de deseabilidad social. Con datos de 96 docentes del programa Aprender para Soñar en Bogotá, se evidencia una subdeclaración sistemática de actitudes sensibles en mediciones directas, sobre todo cuando el docente posee un tipo de contrato provisional. En cuanto a la efectividad docente sobre los resultados académicos de sus estudiantes, se encuentra que una mayor preferencia del docente por la estandarización (en contraste con la personalización) y prácticas de retroalimentación, se asocian con mayores logros del estudiante en matemáticas, mientras que en lectura mayor aprendizaje se asocia con que el docente tenga una formación de posgrado. Los resultados confirman la utilidad de métodos indirectos para captar creencias sensibles de los docentes y sugieren que las evaluaciones docentes tradicionales podrían estar subestimando el papel de factores actitudinales en el aprendizaje.Publicación Acceso abierto Roads, Credit, and Crops: Infrastructure- Induced Reallocation in Colombia(2026-02) Clavijo Torres, Laura V.Transportation infrastructure in remote areas can transform rural economies, but its effects on credit markets and agricultural production remain poorly understood. By analyzing geolocated data on Colombia’s national road expansion and exploiting its staggered implementation, I show that road construction reduces governmentsupported productive credit by 13 percent while leaving total loan balance unchanged, indicating credit substitution from government programs toward private commercial lending rather than reduced credit access. Roads trigger substantial agricultural transformation: coca cultivation declines by 51 percent while cash crops expand by 13 percent, demonstrating that improved connectivity reshapes both production choices and financing needs. The effects are strongest in poorer, more rural, and initially isolated municipalities, with productive credit declining 70 percent more in below-median GDP areas, suggesting that infrastructure’s transformative impacts depend critically on baseline connectivity constraints. I also observe heterogeneous responses across agricultural suitability, with credit substitution concentrated in areas where roads make legal crops newly viable relative to coca. Finally, I find no systematic role for prior conflict exposure, indicating that infrastructure reshapes economic behavior through market integration rather than conflict legacies.Publicación Acceso abierto Anchors in the Storm: Can Emergency Cash Transfers Protect Human Capital During Economic Crises?(2026-02) Castellanos-Rodríguez, Luis EduardoCan emergency unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) protect educational investments and human capital accumulation during economic crises? While UCTs mitigate immediate economic hardship, evidence on their capacity to safeguard educational outcomes during emergencies remains limited. This study investigates Brazil’s Auxílio Emergencial program, one of the developing world’s largest emergency cash transfer programs, and its impact on educational attendance during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using household survey microdata and a regression discontinuity design that exploits exogenous variation in program eligibility, I estimate causal effects on educational attendance among demographic groups within vulnerable single-mother households. Eligibility increased attendance by 16.0 percentage points for young men aged 18–24, with effects driven primarily by those who had dropped out and re-engaged with secondary virtual education. The effects are concentrated among men and are not statistically significant for women. The mechanism operates by reducing economic pressure on households, enabling continued educational participation among younger members while preventing primary earners from engaging in low-quality or informal employment.Publicación Acceso abierto Bad neighbors?: How massive migration reshapes political attitudes(2026-02) Valencia, Juan DiegoHow does a sudden, large-scale inflow of migrants reshape the political attitudes of locals? This paper uses a shift-share design that exploits exogenous variation in arrivals to estimate the effects of Venezuelan migration on political attitudes in Colombia between 2013 and 2019. The results suggest that exposure to the migration shock reduces locals’ support for redistribution, shifts their political ideology to the right, and weakens their support for elections by popular vote. A mediation analysis suggests that negative stereotypes about migrants and other migration-related concerns, including perceived labor market competition, security concerns, and concerns about migrants’ overuse of welfare programs, contribute to explain the decrease in the support for redistribution by increasing in-group identification sentiments among locals. The decrease in the support for elections by popular vote appears to be consistent with locals having less confidence on elections due to doubts about whether elected rulers can ensure an adequate provision of welfare services and maintain public order after the massive migration shock. Finally, the propensity of locals to adhere to anti-left narratives is a key driver of these shifts in political attitudes, including the rightward shift in ideology, which highlights the importance of the associations between the left-wing ideology and the Venezuelan regime in this setting.Publicación Acceso abierto Quality Upgrading in Global Supply Chains: Evidence from Colombian Coffee(2026-01) Macchiavello, Rocco; Miquel-Florensa, Josepa; de Roux, Nicolás; Verhoogen, Eric; Bernasconi, Mario; Farrell, PatrickDo the returns to quality upgrading pass through supply chains to primary producers? We explore this question in the context of Colombia’s coffee sector, in which market outcomes depend on interactions between farmers, exporters (which operate mills), and international buyers, and contracts are for the most part not legally enforceable. We formalize the hypothesis that quality upgrading is subject to a key hold-up problem: producing high-quality beans requires long-term investments by farmers, but there is no guarantee that an exporter will pay a quality premium when the beans arrive at its mills. An international buyer with sufficient demand for highquality coffee can solve this problem by imposing a vertical restraint on the exporter, requiring the exporter to pay a quality premium to farmers. Combining internal records from two exporters, comprehensive administrative data, and the staggered rollout of a buyer-driven quality-upgrading program, we find empirical support for the key theoretical predictions, both the lack of pass-through of quality premia under normal circumstances and the possibility of a buyer-driven solution through a vertical restraint. Calibration of the model suggests that one-third to two-thirds of the (substantial) gains from the program accrue to farmers, with the vertical restraint playing a critical role. The results are consistent with the hypotheses that quality upgrading can provide a path to higher incomes for farmers, but also that it is unlikely to be viable under standard market conditions in the sector.