Resumen

How does a sudden, large-scale inflow of migrants reshape the political attitudes of locals? This paper uses a shift-share design that exploits exogenous variation in arrivals to estimate the effects of Venezuelan migration on political attitudes in Colombia between 2013 and 2019. The results suggest that exposure to the migration shock reduces locals’ support for redistribution, shifts their political ideology to the right, and weakens their support for elections by popular vote. A mediation analysis suggests that negative stereotypes about migrants and other migration-related concerns, including perceived labor market competition, security concerns, and concerns about migrants’ overuse of welfare programs, contribute to explain the decrease in the support for redistribution by increasing in-group identification sentiments among locals. The decrease in the support for elections by popular vote appears to be consistent with locals having less confidence on elections due to doubts about whether elected rulers can ensure an adequate provision of welfare services and maintain public order after the massive migration shock. Finally, the propensity of locals to adhere to anti-left narratives is a key driver of these shifts in political attitudes, including the rightward shift in ideology, which highlights the importance of the associations between the left-wing ideology and the Venezuelan regime in this setting.