Documentos CEDE

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https://hdl.handle.net/1992/56742

En este sitio podrá consultar todos los números de los Documentos CEDE. Publicación de la Facultad de Economía de la Universidad de los Andes y el Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo Económico

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Mostrando 1 - 20 de 1176

Acceso abierto
50 years of job vacancies in Colombia: the case of Bogota, 1960-2010
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2012) Alvarez Gallo, Carlos Andrés; Hofstetter Gascón, Marc
This paper presents a novel monthly dataset of job vacancies in Bogota between 1960 and 2010. The dataset was constructed by counting the number of help-wanted announcements published in the most important newspaper with national circulation - namely, El Tiempo. We describe the methodology used to construct the database, discuss some possible problems associated with it, and propose ways to solve them. The paper also presents an estimation of the job vacancy rate. We depict a Beveridge curve and use the vacancy rate to forecast unemployment. This first look at the series yields sensible results, while leaving a myriad of open questions for future research.
Acceso abierto
A characterization of homogeneous production functions using the ratio of average to marginal costs
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2006) Bonaldi Varón, Jean Pietro; Vallejo González, Hernan Eduardo
Acceso abierto
A characterization of the Herfindahl Hirschman Index and its use in the Horizontal Merger Guidelines
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2021) Vallejo, Hernán
This article characterizes the Herfindahl Hirshman Index and its use by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission of the United States, in their Horizontal Merger Guidelines. The characterization maps ranges of the index with the level of market concentration and its changes due to horizontal mergers and acquisitions, in terms of the number of firms operating in the market and the market share of the largest active firm. The article aims to provide alternative and graphic approaches that may contribute to analyze horizontal mergers and acquisitions in an easier and expedited way, from a market concentration perspective and before there are any changes in strategic interactions or market equilibria.
Acceso abierto
A derivation of the optimal answer-copying index and some applications
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2014) Romero, Mauricio; Jara Pinzón, Diego; Riascos Villegas, Álvaro José
Multiple choice exams are frequently used as an efficient and objective instrument to evaluate knowledge. Nevertheless, they are more vulnerable to answer-copying than tests based on open questions. Several statistical tests (known as indices) have been proposed to detect cheating but to the best of our knowledge they all lack a mathematical support that guarantees optimality in any sense. This work aims at filling this void by deriving the uniform most powerful (UMP) test assuming the response distribution is known. In practice we must estimate a behavioral model that yields a response distribution for each question. We calculate the empirical type-I and type-II error rates for several indices, that assume different behavioral models, using simulations based on real data from twelve nation wide multiple choice exams taken by 5th and 9th graders in Colombia. We find that the index with the highest power among those studied, subject to the restriction of preserving the type-I error, is the one that uses a nominal response model for item answering, conditions on the answers of the individual suspected of being the source of copy and calculates critical values via a normal approximation. This index was first studied by Wollack (1997) and later by W. Van der Linden and Sotaridona (2006) and is superior to the indices studied and developed by Wesolowsky (2000) and Frary, Tideman, and Watts (1977). Furthermore, we compare the performance of the indices on examination rooms with different levels of proctoring and find that increasing the level of proctoring can reduce copying by as much as 50% and that simple strategies such as having different students answer different portions of the test at different times canal so reduce cheating by over 50%. Finally, a Bonferroni type false discovery rate procedure is used to detect massive cheating. The application is straightforward and we believe it could be use to make entire examination rooms retake an exam under stricter surveillance conditions.
Acceso abierto
A direct proof of the existence of pure strategy equilibria in large generalized games with atomic players
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2010) Riascos Villegas, Álvaro José; Torres-Martínez, Juan Pablo
Consider a game with a continuum of players where only a finite number of them are atomic. Objective functions and admissible strategies may dependon the actions chosen by atomic players and on aggregate information about theactions chosen by non-atomic players. Only atomic players are required to haveconvex sets of admissible strategies and quasi-concave objective functions. In thiscontext, we prove the existence of pure strategy Nash equilibria, a result that ex-tends Rath (1992, Theorem 2) to generalized games and gives a direct proof of aspecial case of Balder (1999, Theorem 2.1). Our proof has the merit of being simple,based only on standard fixed point arguments and finite dimensional real analysis.
Acceso abierto
A dynamic analysis of household decision making in urban Colombia, 1976-1998: changes in household structure, human capital and its returns, and female labor force participation
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 1999) Sánchez Torres, Fabio José; Núñez Méndez, Jairo Augusto
The objective of this research paper is to examine the changes and dynamics of household structure, human capital and the returns to education, labor earnings, women labor force participation and investment in human capital. The approach used in the analysis is the so-called "cohort technique", which consists in following across time men and women born in the same year or year spell. The main sources of information for this work are the quarterly Household Surveys beginning in 1976. With such information a database of more than 6.0 millions observations (workers, parents, children, etc) was constructed. The research results show that the number of children of the younger parents has drastically decreased. This process has come together with a significant increase in women's labor force participation and higher women's school attainment. The study also points out that the school attainment of the younger generation of women is higher than men's and that the income gap between men and women of the new generation, after controlling by education, is lower than such gap in the old generations. Finally, the study indicates that the human capital accumulation has been very unequal for the different income groups. The children of low educated parents achieve low levels of education both in the old and new generations. Thus, the escaping from the poverty trap is as difficult today as in the past. The education opportunities are concentrated in the middle and high-income groups.
Acceso abierto
A dynamic model of vertical integration for the american pulp and paper industry
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2003) Meléndez Alarcón, María Marcela
The focus of this research is to learn about the factors that influence the decision of a manufacturing firm to vertically integrate into the production of its input. The American paper industry has a feature that makes it particularly suitable for this purpose: over the years paper mills of apparently similar characteristics have made different decisions with regards to their integration status. This work draws on the insight that there must be some unobserved mill characteristic that drives the decision process for a mill. Mills' choices of whether to exit the industry, and with regards to their integration status when they choose to stay in operation, depend on their productivity. This generates selection and simultaneity biases in a reduced form estimation. In order to deal with these issues, I propose a dynamic model in the spirit of Olley and Pakes (1996). This approach not only takes care of the estimation biases, but also allows me to learn about the unobserved characteristics of the firms in my data, and to use them to determine which firms vertically integrate and which firms do not. In addition, the model I propose allows me to learn about how vertical integration affects productivity and mill's entry and exit decisions.
Acceso abierto
A formal proof of the factor price equalization theorem
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2004) Vallejo González, Hernán Eduardo
This paper provides a formal proof of the Factor Price Equalization Theorem within the Heckscher Ohlin model derived by Ronald W. Jones in "The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models" (1965), where formal proof is provided for the Heckscher Ohlin, Stolper Samuelson and Rybczynski Theorems.
Acceso abierto
A generalized index of market power
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2005) Vallejo González, Hernán Eduardo
This paper analyses two approaches to measuring market power -the commonly used Lerner index and a range of exploitation measures-. It is argued that the Lerner index is designed to quantify market power from the supply side, and the exploitation measures are designed to quantify market power from the demand side, and that those two approaches do not always behave in a symmetric way, since they do not always have the same bounds. To sort out these potentially undesirable properties, this paper proposes a new general index to measure market power, which is symmetrical in the sense that it is bounded between cero and one, regardless of whether the market power comes from the supply or the demand side. The index proposed allows for the presence of more than one firm and for the existence of conjectural variations.
Acceso abierto
A geography of illicit crops (Coca Leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2004) Díaz Escobar, Ana María; Sánchez Torres, Fabio José
Colombia is currently the world's largest producer of coca leaf and the principal producer of opium poppies in the Americas; the plants are the basic raw materials used to produce cocaine and heroin. This document will analyse the current relationship between these crops and illegal armed groups in Colombia, using the hypothesis that the geographical intensification of the conflict is the principal cause of expanding illicit crop production. This relationship was analysed using a theoretic model, in which an interaction between illegal armed activity and strategic territorial control lead to cocaine production. Spatial analysis techniques were then applied, especially spatial association indicators; and a clear spatial dynamic was observed, related to the two aspects mentioned above. Non parametric exercises were also carried out using matching estimators, to determine the effect illegal armed groups have on coca crops, and also to analyse the efficiency of aerial eradication policies. The results suggest that a large percentage of coca production in Colombia is due to the effects of illegal armed activity. We therefore conclude that the expansion of illegal crop growing is a consequence of the expanding conflict. In contrast, coca crops can only be used to explain a small part of the armed conflict in Colombia. In addition, we found that crop eradication via aerial spraying has not been an efficient tool in the fight against coca production in the country.
Acceso abierto
A model of oligopoly
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2021) Vallejo, Hernán
This article builds a simple model of oligopoly and uses it to make a detailed characterization of the equilibrium prices; quantities; mark-ups; price elasticities of market demand; price elasticities of residual demand; and welfare, all in terms of the parameters of the model. This is done under five different conjectures -Collusion, Threat, Cournot, Stackelberg and Bertrand-. The results of the model are used do comparative statics.
Acceso abierto
A new beginning: The effect of the free housing program on the quality of life of beneficiary households
(Universidad de los Andes, 2022-07) Camacho González, Adriana; Caputo Leyva, Jorge Enrique; Sánchez Torres, Fabio
This paper analyzes the effect of the Free Housing Program (PVG) on the well-being of beneficiary households. This program is an initiative of the Colombian Government to provide free houses to the most vulnerable households in the country. To estimate causal impacts of the program, we exploit that 38% of the beneficiaries were selected through housing lotteries. We show that most of recipients still reside in the houses provided in the program (5-6 years after the housing lotteries), which have adequate conditions of structure, space, and access to public services. Also, we show that program improves the labor conditions of beneficiary households, either through greater labor participation (in women), or by changing the type of work or economic sector (in men) and even earning more income (both). As a result of the previous impacts, the beneficiary households were able to restructure their expenses, acquire more durable goods, save more money, and escape extreme poverty. The main mechanism that explains these results is that the beneficiaries were relocated to places with a greater provision of public goods, closer proximity to complementary services and more economic activity.
Acceso abierto
A New Lens on the Rich: Measuring Personal Income with Novel Tax Data from Colombia
(2026-01) Obando Martínez, Juan Camilo
Accurate measurement of income inequality remains a critical challenge in developing economies, particularly due to the underreporting of top incomes in traditional household surveys. In Colombia, while previous research has improved income measurement through tax records, these approaches fail to capture undistributed corporate profits that constitute a significant portion of top earners’ economic resources. This study addresses this limitation by employing Colombia’s Beneficial Ownership Registry (BOR), a novel administrative dataset linking corporate entities to their ultimate individual beneficiaries. I assess the BOR’s strengths in revealing ownership transparency and its limitations. Building on this foundation, I develop a economic income measure that allocates undistributed corporate profits to individuals, revealing that incomes of the top 0.01% nearly double when these profits are included. Extending this framework to effective tax rates (ETRs) shows that ETRs increase throughout the personal income distribution, while the overall shape of the ETR profile remains unchanged. In particular, effective tax rates continue to decline at the very top of the distribution. Thus, corporate taxes act as a partial backstop by raising effective tax rates throughout the distribution, even though the regressive pattern at the very top persists. Finally, comparisons with France and Brazil highlight similar regressive patterns and the potential of administrative datasets like the BOR to enhance fiscal transparency and equitable tax policy.
Acceso abierto
A note on risk-sharing mechanisms for the colombian health insurance system
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2017) Riascos Villegas, Álvaro José; Camelo Gómez, Sergio Armando
We evaluate, in terms of efficiency and selection incentives, four different ex post risk sharing mecha-nisms. Outlier risk sharing (ORS), proportional risk sharing (PRS), risk sharing for high costs (RSHC)and risk sharing for high risks. Our results suggest that the best mechanism in terms of their impliedefficiency selection trade off are, risk sharing for high costs and risk sharing for high risks. In general,outlier risk sharing has a poor performance. Our results are robust with respect to different scenariosfor ex ante risk adjustment or incentives for efficiency and selection based on expected or realized costs.We believe that the most realistic scenario analysed is one in which insurance companies use expectedreimbursements and costs as their best source of information (signal) to decide on efficiency and selectiontrade-offs. In this case, we found that risk sharing of high risks dominates all other mechanisms.
Acceso abierto
A primer on propensity score matching estimators
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2006) Vinha, Katja
Nonparametric matching estimators are frequently applied in evaluation studies. The general idea of the methodology is to determine the impact of treatment on the treated using information from treated and from similar non-treated observations to build a counterfactual of no treatment. I discuss the methodology for both the binary treatment case as well as for the multiple treatment case.
Acceso abierto
A proposal to improve our understanding of entrepreneurship using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2008) Mondragón-Vélez, Camilo Hernán; Peña Parga, Ximena
This paper aims to evidence how relatively marginal changes in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics survey, particularly on the measurement of returns to entrepreneurship -both financial and human capital- can yield sizeable benefits for research and policy on entrepreneurship. Accurate measurement of returns to all the resources invested in entrepreneurial endeavors is not only essential to understand the motivations and barriers to start a business, but can ultimately provide the basis to improve the effectiveness of programs and policies to foster entrepreneurial activity in the economy. In fact, recent studies question the importance of pecuniary benefits in the decision to become an entrepreneur. However, these are based on measures of total earnings and sample aggregate returns. Thus, adequate individual data on business income and its components has an enormous value for both research and policy design altogether.
Acceso abierto
A short guide to long-run time-phased systems of production
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2008) Matallana Laverde, Hernando
The paper discusses brietly several long-run systems of production vis-a-vis alternative theories of value and distribution stated by Marx, classical-neoricardian, post-Leontief-neoclassical, and post-Keynes-Srafra authors during the last hundred and fifty years. All the systems of production considered in thepaper have in common the circular production of commodities by means of commodities. A distinctive characteristic of these systems is the standard of valuein terms of which the wage rate and the prices of commodities are expressed. Inparticular, the logical structure of the systems of prices of production implies that different standards of value imply different theories of value and distribution both real and monetary in character. Methodological pluralism suggests that distinct theories of value and distribution reflect different scientific normative economic paradigms. It appears that dialectics is needed in order to trascendinter-paradigmatic debate.
Acceso abierto
A Simulation Model for the Colombian Pension System
(2025-09) Becerra, Oscar
This article presents the CEDE Pension Model, a microsimulation tool designed to project key variables of Colombia’s pension system. The model integrates administrative data, household surveys, and institutional parameters to simulate labor histories using Markov chains and to project the number of older adults who will receive pension benefits through 2100. Its design enables the evaluation of policy options for old-age economic protection, highlighting trade-offs across coverage, equity and progressivity, adequacy, and fiscal sustainability.
Acceso abierto
A strategy to predict association football players' passing skills
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2017) Tovar Mora, Jorge Andrés; Clavijo, Andrés; Cárdenas, Julián
Transfers are big business in association football. This paper develops a generalized additive mixed model that aids managers in predicting how a football player is expected to perform in a new team. It do es so by using event-level data from the Spanis hand the Colombian football leagues. Using passes as a performance proxy, the model exploits the richness of the data to account for the difficulty of each pass at tempt performed by each player over an entire season. The model estimates are then used to determine how a player transferred from the Colombian league should performin the Spanish league, taking into account that teammates and rivals' abilities are different in the latter.
Acceso abierto
A theorem of the Law of Demand
(Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2021) Vallejo, Hernán
This article proves that at the level of an individual ceteris paribus, when the endowments of goods in general -and of time in particular-, are taken into account, a good complies with the Law of Demand if and only if: a) It is normal (inferior) and its excess demand is positive (negative); or b) The substitution effect is negative and the excess demand and/or the income effect are zero; or c) It is normal (inferior), its excess demand is negative (positive), and the substitution effect is greater than the net income effect, in absolute terms. This article also outlines other conditions under which a good will not comply with the Law of Demand, by being perfectly inelastic to its price or by being Giffen. It is proved that the widespread idea that a Giffen good has to be an inferior good, applies only to the cases where the excess demand of such good, is positive.

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