Examinando por Autor "Echeverry Garzón, Juan Carlos"

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    Budget inflexibility
    (Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2005) Echeverry Garzón, Juan Carlos; Fergusson Talero, Leopoldo; Querubín Borrero, Pablo
    The study of budgetary institutions has long been an important topic in the economic literature. Nonetheless, the degree of rigidity or inflexibility in budget preparation, a prime preoccupation for policy makers and in particular for finance ministers since a long time ago, has been relatively unexplored. In this paper we show that budget inflexibility can take several forms and argue that it is likely to be closely related to various types of political conflict present in the budget process. Moreover, we study one particular form of budget inflexibility and its connection with one specific (but perhaps the most important) political force driving the budget process. More specifically, we discuss some of the consequences of "expenditure inflexibility," defined as the existence of transfers to special interests enjoying constitutional or legal protection which impede their modification in the short run, in a simple model of legislative bargaining that captures the Tragedy of the Commons present in public budget allocation.
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    Colombia and the war on drugs, how short is the short run?
    (Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2004) Echeverry Garzón, Juan Carlos
    In the nineties, Colombia became the main supplier of cocaine to the world markets. Estimations of total production and net revenues indicate that for 2001 this illegal business might have been responsible for 2% to 4% of the country's GDP, depending on the number of hectares of coca leaf planted and productivity per hectare contemplated by different analysts. The war on drugs, specially its supply side for which Colombia is held responsible, consists of obstructing all the steps of this traffic, from curtailing the inflow of inputs, destroying crops and processing units, until transportation interdiction and dismantling domestic money laundering. This war has cost dearly to Colombia, both economically and institutionally. The direct effect of the war on drugs is an increase of cocaine prices. Therefore, its efficacy lies on a variable that measures consumers' responsiveness to price increases, i.e. the price elasticity of demand in the U.S. The empirical evidence in this respect indicates a troubling result: it is inelastic (insensitive) in the short run, but elastic in the long run. The war on drugs makes sense only in the second scenario. Therefore, the question is: how short is the short run? The jury is still out in this respect.
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    Determinants and consequences of foreign indebtedness in Colombian firms
    (Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2003) Echeverry Garzón, Juan Carlos; Fergusson Talero, Leopoldo; Steiner Sampedro, Roberto; Aguilar Londoño, Camila María
    During the nineties the performance of many emerging economies was linked to their access to foreign capital and its impact on the real exchange rate. Colombia was not an exception, as it experienced a sharp boom and bust cycle during the period. Although a number of studies have attempted to explain the recent underperformance of the Colombian economy, few attempts have been made at analyzing firm-level data. In this paper, we rely on information for a large sample of firms during 1995-2001 (nearly 8000 firms on average) and examine the determinants of foreign indebtedness as well as the effects on firm performance of holding dollar debt amid changes in the real exchange rate (i.e. the so called "balance sheet effect"). While size is the most robust determinant of dollar indebtedness, matching seems to take place, to the extent that firms in more open sectors and exporting firms have higher shares of dollar debt. In spite of the limited amount of dollar indebtedness of Colombian firms in general, our estimations suggest there is a negative balance sheet effect on firms' performance (i.e. on profitability). On the other hand, the interaction of dollar indebtedness with the real exchange rate is generally not significant in our investment regressions.
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    El impacto social del sector bancario en Colombia, 1993-2002
    (Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE, 2006) Echeverry Garzón, Juan Carlos; Fonseca Galvis, Angela María
    Este documento estudia el impacto del sector bancario sobre variables sociales en Colombia, y busca identificar cómo la diferencia en el desarrollo de las instituciones bancarias a nivel municipal influye sobre la prosperidad económica y social de hogares de bajos recursos y de las empresas en esas localidades. El estudio busca identificar empíricamente cómo la bancarización o el acceso a fuentes intermediadas de crédito y depósitos influyen sobre la pobreza y la inversión en educación, en el caso de las familias; y el desempeño económico y el cambio en el número de firmas a nivel municipal. Al medir estos efectos se controla por variables locales como el gasto público en inversión, la tasa de homicidios y la incidencia del conflicto. El período de estudio, 1993-2002, estuvo caracterizado por el fin del auge económico y una fase de recesión aguda, lo cual afecta los resultados econométricos y su interpretación. En la medida que estén disponibles nuevas cifras se debe extender estos ejercicios a períodos de mayor normalidad económica. El estudio muestra que el desarrollo bancario afecta la inversión de los hogares en educación y el desempeño de las empresas a nivel local; se encontró que la cartera de consumo está asociada con el aumento en el número de empresas.